A Gallup poll shows that the gap between Democrats and Republicans on Israel is 37%. In other words, by a margin of 37% Republicans favor Israel's hard-line policies more than Democrats do. (Note: I do not buy the idea that supporting the Netanyahu government's policies or the occupation is the same as supporting Israel. In fact, I think that supporting self-destructive dead-end policies is anti-Israel. Nonetheless, I'm accepting common usage for the sake of this argument).

It is no surprise that Republicans like Bibi and the occupation more than Democrats. Republicans are hawks. Democrats tend to be doves. I'd bet a lot that when Yitzhak Rabin was Prime Minister of Israel, it was Democrats who liked Israel more.

Republicans are already saying that the Israel gap will produce more Jewish votes for their candidates. But it won't for reasons the brilliant syndicated New York Jewish Week reporter James Besser explains here. It's worth a read. Here is his conclusion.

The argument that the Republicans are stronger supporters of Israel than the Democrats, and so Jews will start crossing the line en masse, has been around for years - and yet Jews tend to stick to the Democrats.

What gives? Seems to me there are only two reasonable explanations.

The first is that, as the Republicans say, Jews will gradually move over to their column as the Democratic party becomes less friendly toward Israel. These kinds of numbers are just leading indicators of a change that is already taking place, albeit slowly, they argue.

Maybe. But it's also possible something else is going on: rank-and-file Jewish voters know Republicans tend to be more hardline supporters of Israel, or at least of current Israeli policy, and they don't much care.

Maybe because that's because a lot of American Jews don't like current Israeli policy, either.

Or it's because Israel just isn't a big factor in their political decision making.

Talk to a a random sample of Jewish leaders, and in private, at least, most will lament what they say is a growing detachment from Israel among American Jews, especially younger ones.

Maybe the Democrats aren't as gung-ho about Israel, or at least the current Israeli government, but nobody's saying Israel's aid should be cut off, a Democratic president isn't pounding Israel with a diplomatic sledgehammer, so what's the big deal? Where's the crisis?

Absent a crisis, maybe the growing gap in attitudes about Israel just isn't much of a factor to many Jewish voters.

Maybe the widening gap between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to support for Israel, combined with the continuing Democratic voting behavior of most Jews, reflects something that spells bigger trouble for Israel: most American Jews just aren't that involved in the issue. Mirroring the widening gap between Democrats and Republicans on Israel is the widening gap between pro-Israel activists in the Jewish community, a relatively small minority, and rank-and-file Jews who care about Israel, but don't make it their highest priority.

If I was a Jewish Democratic leader, I'd be worried; there's no way to spin theser numbers as good for their side. If I was the leader of a single-issue pro-Israel group, I'd be a lot more worried.

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